Cómo armar un plan de trading para invertir en la bolsa


¿Te pondrías a construir una casa sin antes haber dibujado un plano? Iniciar una operación en la bolsa sin un plan de trading es casi lo mismo. En el caso del inmueble, podría correr riesgo de derrumbe por haber calculado mal la profundidad de los cimientos, en el caso de la bolsa podría generarte grandes pérdidas y un perjuicio en tu patrimonio. Por eso, una de las máximas que siempre hay que respetar a la hora de operar en la bolsa es: «Plan your trade, trade your plan» (Planificá tu trade, operá tu plan).

¿Qué es un plan de trading?

Un plan de trading es una herramienta fundamental para la toma de decisiones. Está compuesto de tres elementos: Reglas de Entrada, Reglas de Salida, y tamaño de la posición. En un momento volveremos sobre eso. Antes tenemosq que entender que operar sin un plan de trading, invertir en la bolsa es como apostar en un casino. Con el plan de trading estás obligado a hacer la tarea, estudiar la evolución del precio de la acción en la que querés invertir, analizar la situación general del mercado y definir tu plan de acción antes que las emociones entren en juego.

Con un plan de trading, además, sacamos de la ecuación las emociones, o al menos las reducimos a su mínima expresión. Si conocés de antemano cuál va a ser tu punto de entrada, tu objetivo y tu stop loss, y respetás tu plan, entonces la montaña rusa de emociones no debería afectarte tanto. Por supuesto, seguimos siendo humanos y las emociones siempre van a jugar un papel a la hora de determinar nuestras inversiones, el plan de trading nos ayuda a minimizar los riesgos.

Mirá también «Planificar un trade en el graficador«, en nuestro Curso de Bolsa para Prinicpiantes 

Preparando el trade

Si el plan de trading es la preparación antes de iniciar un trade, el plan de trading también requiere de preparación; asignar valores al azar en nuestro plan es tan mala idea como no tener un plan. Ser métodico es clave para tener éxito en el trading, inclusive en la preparación. Según tu estrategia, los pasos previos a armar tu plan de trading serán diferentes. Por ejemplo, aquellos que se guíen por el análisis técnico podrán determinar niveles de soportes y resistencias, identificar la relación del precio respecto de la nube de Ichimoku, o analizar las posiciones de las medias móviles. También es una buena idea repasar las noticias del mercado en general, y las que puedan afectar a la acción en particular.

Definiendo la entrada

Las reglas de entrada en un plan de trading son las condiciones que deben ocurrir para poder iniciar un trade. Estas condiciones pueden incluir un determinado movimiento del precio, figuras o patrones de velas que muestren el gráfico, indicadores, o cualquier otra variable que creas que te pone del lado de las probabilidades. Si bien las reglas de entrada las podemos definir en particular para cada operación, algunas reglas serán generales y estarán más relacionadas con nuestra estrategia de trading que con cada operación particular.

Por ejemplo, ¿cuál es el número mínimo de señales que vas a tener en cuenta antes de iniciar un trade? ¿Cuándo vamos a abrir un trade? ¿Lo haremos ni bien tengamos tres señales de entrada o esperamos al final de la rueda para abrir el trade en la mañana siguiente?¿O cuando se complete la vela? ¿Que marcos temporales vamos a tomar en cuenta a la hora de analizar la evolución del precio de una acción?

Toda esta información la tenemos que volcar en nuestro plan de trading, y a partir de ese análisis vamos a poder determinar el precio de entrada y las condiciones que se tienen que dar a la hora de iniciar un trade.

Mirá también «Condiciones para iniciar una operación«, en nuestro Curso de Bolsa para Prinicpiantes 

Las reglas de salida

Ya definimos las condiciones que van a determinar si iniciamos o no un trade, con esto ya tenemos armada la primer parte de nuestro plan de trading. Sin embargo, todavía te falta la segunda parte, igual de importante: las reglas de salida o, en otras palabras, cuáles van a ser las condiciones que se tienen que dar para que vendamos las acciones que compramos. Al igual que en el caso anterior, tener bien en claro esto nos ahorrará disgustos, minimizará nuestras pérdidas y maximizará las ganancias.

Las reglas de salida en un plan de trading las tenemos que definir asumiendo los dos escenarios posibles: si el trade es ganador (vendemos más alto de lo que compramos) o si el trade es perdedor (vendemos por debajo del precio de compra). Para esto también vamos a recurrir a los mismos elementos que utilizamos para definir las reglas de entrada: movimientos en el precio, la formación de figuras o patrones de vales o el valor de indicadores, entre otras.

Uno de los valores de las reglas de salida será el del stop lossel precio en el cual vamos a cerrar nuestro trade si nuestra idea no funcionó como esperabamos. Este precio va a estar determinado por algunos de los factores que mencionamos en el párrafo anterior, pero también estará vinculado con nuestro capital. Es aconsejable nunca arriesgar más del 3% del total del capital en un solo trade. Entonces, si tenemos un capital de $100.000 deberíamos estar dispuestos a tolerar una pérdida máxima por trade de hasta $3.000. De esta manera, no solo nos evitamos disgustos mayores al dejar correr pérdidas esperando que la tendencia cambie (¡grave error!) y además vamos a estar protegiendo nuestro capital.

Por el otro lado, también tenemos que tener claro cuál es el momento de tomar ganancias. El valor de una activo no seguirá subiendo de forma infinita, indefectiblemente en algún momento comenzará a bajar (lo que se llama una corrección). Para determinar este valor podemos usar distintas herramientas, como por ejemplo vender ante una resistencia, utilizar los llamados trailing stops, o utilizar las extensiones de Fibonacci para determinar objetivos.

Mirá también «Diferencias entre stop loss, take profit, soportes y resistencias«, en nuestro Curso de Bolsa para Prinicpiantes 

Siempre respetá tu plan de trading

Un plan de trading no necesariamente es intocable. Revisarlo una vez que cierra la jornada para evaluar si no es conveniente subir el precio del stop loss (nunca bajarlo!) o ajustar el objetivo del trade es una buena práctica. Por ejemplo, en el caso de que el trade se desarrolle como pensabamos que iba a hacerlo, podríamos pensar en subir el stop loss para proteger parte de las ganancias.

Más allá de estas revisiones, es fundamental que respetes tu plan de trading. No todas las operaciones que inicies, sin importar cuánto la hayas analizado o estudiado, serán exitosas. En algunas tendrás que asumir una pérdida, y es preferible tener las pérdidas bajo control con nuestro plan de trading, que dejarlas acumularse porque nuestras emociones nos juegan una mala pasada. Lo mismo en sentido inverso, si el precio alcanza el objetivo podemos cerrar la posición y esperar una nueva oportunidad de entrada o buscar oportunidades en otros activos y así evitar que la ambición te haga perder lo que ganaste.

El plan de trading es la clave para ser un trader consistente, maximizar las ganancias y minimizar las pérdidas. Nunca subestimes el poder de tus emociones, ni las ventajas de tener un método.

Te ayudamos a armar
tu plan de trading 

Preparamos dos planillas para que puedas planificar tus trades, evaluarlos, y adquirir la disciplina que necesita todo trader exitoso.

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